Saturday 25 August 2012

Weekend Tips

Last week I did say that strange results would happen. QPR let me down massively getting absolutely thumped by Swansea. I still stand by saying that I think Swansea will struggle, although if they have found a goalscorer in Michu then hope for them is restored. Also the signing of Ki from Celtic is a positive move. Luckily the Bradford Bulls did pick up the win over Huddersfield so it was a total losing day. 

This week there are again plenty of chances for wins with a full fixture list as well as racing from Newmarket, Goodwood and York. 

Football:
Todays Premier League matches are tough to call. Tomorrow's games have more potential for betting. Tomorrow Stoke host Arsenal. This is a notoriously difficult one for Arsenal and one I doubt they will be looking forward to. With this in mind the 9/4 (Skybet) price for a Stoke win is very appealing. While watching Arsenal last week there was a sense of de ja vu as they dominated a home match without finding a breakthrough. So many times has this be seen at the Emirates. Fans may argue that teams come to defend at the Emirates and get 10 men behind the ball, however if Arsenal are a top side they should be able to break through. The Arsenal of old would have. The loss of Robin Van Persie will affect them as every time someone misses a chance people will say 'Van Persie would have scored that'. 

Giroud needs a score soon
Therefore the pressure of the likes of Olivier Giroud is huge. His miss last week will not have helped his confidence either. The sooner the new signings such as Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud (right) score the better. Although this week I do think that a defeat is on the cards. The 9/4 price is very nice and worth a punt. Arsenal are favourites at 6/5 (SkyBet) and the draw is 23./10 (Skybet)


Also tomorrow, Manchester City travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool. Liverpool suffered a 3-0 defeat last week to West Brom, whereas City claimed a lucky 3-2 win over Southampton. City will again be favourites for this one and I do expect them to win and win comfortably, 2-0 City would be my prediction. If Liverpool lose it will be the first time they have lost the opening two games since 1959 and Bill Shankly was manager. Brendan Rogers has a tough job on, the signing on Sahin will help however if he plays in this one we will see. My fear is that City will be totally dominant however do as they did against Southampton and not finish the job early on when they had the chances. Liverpool do have players to hurt as Luis Suarez has proved before. City as 7/5 (Skybet) for this one and like the Stoke odds it is very tempting.  Liverpool are 15/8 (SkyBet) and the draw in 12/5 (SkyBet). 

Bet of the Weekend: Stoke/Man City win double @ 8/1 (SkyBet). 

Treble : Sheffield Wednesday/Leeds/Middlesborough @8/1 (Skybet)

Longshot of the day: Newcastle to beat Chelsea @6/1 (SkyBet) 

Racing: 
Each-Way bet: 2.15 @ Goodwood - Annie's Fortune 14/1 (SkyBet)  
Win Bet: 3.25 @ Goodwood- Chachamaidee 11/4 (SkyBet)

Rugby League:
Challenge Cup Final day and my tip is Leeds. Leeds are 2/1 (SkyBet) and this is a great price. Burrow to be man of the match at 8/1 is also tempting. 

Good luck with any bets today.


Saturday 18 August 2012

Weekend Tips

The day has come.  After another penalty heartache for England at the Euros and football fans enjoying Wimbledon and the Olympics: the domestic football is back. Men and women all over the country are waking up this morning with excitement as to the season ahead. All with hopes of promotion, glory or success. With clubs starting the new season with new managers, no fewer then six in the Premier League, a fresh hope of what is to come may be the feeling if you are an Aston Villa fan that is or maybe a slightly nervy one if you are a Tottenham fan. 

With this weekend being the opening day bets will be tough to call. There is no doubt ,as ever on the opening day, there will be shocks and possibly some big wins. If recent years are to go by then Wigan should start as ever with a resounding 4/5/6-0 defeat to Chelsea on Sunday. It is the first time we will get to properly see new signings and see the impact they will have. There is also racing from Newbury, Newmarket and Doncaster as they search for winners continues. Also just a reminder that next week is the Ebor Festival at York, should be a cracker. 

Football:

Tough times ahead for Laudrup:
A fascial expression I think we will be
seeing a lot of this season
There are seven Premier League matches this afternoon as well as a virtually full football league fixture list. My bet of the day is that of QPR to beat Swansea. Mark Hughes has strengthened his squad throughout the summer adding players of class and experience. The signings of Park Ji Sung and Junior Hoilett will really aid them this season. For me they will have a better season however I would not go as far as calling them a surprise package. As for Swansea, they did very well last season defying all expectations to stay up. Although this season I think they are in trouble. The loss of Joe Allan to Liverpool was a blow however for me it was losing Gfyi Siggurdsson that is the biggest loss. I look at Swansea and I just do not see goals. They may continue their style from last year and have plenty of possession but for me I do not see where the goals are coming from and a team that does not score goals are clearly relegation material. Also new manager Michael Laudrup (above right) despite a converted  playing career but his managerial CV is not full of successes and he has never managed in the Premier League. I think he is going to struggle. As a result with QPR being at home, first game of the season, they will look for 3 points. Personally I think it will be 3-0. 

SkyBet go 20/21 the QPR win and this is a great price. A Swansea win is at 11/4 and the draw 5/2. If anyone was interested the 3-0 win is at 40/1.     

Elsewhere it will be interesting to see how Arsenal perform. The loss of Robin Van Persie and now Alex Song may have affected them. Sunderland can be an awkward team but away from home would put me of a bet here. In theory it should be a classic Mark Lawrenson BBC prediction of 2-0, but with Martin O'Neil as manager I feel a shock here is possible and SkyBet go a tempting 7-1 the Sunderland win and 7/2 the draw. Also a wins for West Ham (6/5)and Reading (13/10) are possible. West Ham take on, in my opinion a very poor Villa, and at home back in the Premier League the atmosphere will be fantastic. Reading have a slightly trickier affair against Stoke, however again they will be buzzing to start the season and I do think despite the calls of doom and gloom for Reading that they will have a good season and survive. They play good football and I have been impressed with certain summer additions such as Pavel Pogrebnyak. 

The other games I will just watch as for me none are worth a bet.

Bet of the day: QPR win over Swansea @ 20/21- SkyBet 
Premier League Treble: QPR, West Ham and Reading @9/1 - SkyBet or add Manchester City for odds of 10/1
Long Shot- Sunderland to win at the Emirates @ 7/1- SkyBet

3 Draws- Hull/Brighton, Ipswich/Blackburn and Fulham/Norwich @40/1- SkyBet
Accumulator- Sheff Utd, Preston, Rotherham, Southend and Swindon @30/1- SkyBet

Racing:

 Each-Way bets:  Newbury 3.05 - Edinburgh Night/ Newbury 3.40- Rakaan
 Win Bet: Doncaster 5.00- Daring Indian

Rugby League:

The Bulls have been resurgent of late and despite Huddersfield's win last week I think the Bulls will have too much for them. Better focused and more committed so have to back the Bulls. Bradford Bulls to beat Huddersfield Giants @ 2/1 (Sunday)

Good luck with all your bets today.


Wednesday 15 August 2012

Who has got it right?

This summer we have seen no less then 6 managerial changes with  Liverpool, Tottenham, Swansea, Norwich, Aston Villa and West Brom all with new men in the hotseat. However which club have made the right appointment?

Is Rodgers the right man?
Liverpool took the decision early on in the summer to remove Kenny Dalglish from his position. For me this was no surprise as Liverpool had a poor season on and off the field. Despite a League Cup victory and an FA Cup final, finishing the season in 7th was simply not good enough. Their performances were poor as they really struggled to find the back of the net. Dalglish spent over 100 million in 18 months and unfortunately for him many of his signings did not perform. Andy Carroll, Stewart Downing, Charlie Adam, Jose Enrique, Sebastian Coates and Jordan Henderson all had poor seasons and as a result Dalglish took much of the criticism. Also off the field, the Luis Suarez race row caused nothing but poor publicity for Liverpool. The way it was handled was appalling and the behaviour of Dalglish throughout was totally unprofessional. It was this for me that sealed his fate.

Brendan Rogers offers a new approach to Liverpool. He has won many plaudits for his management of Swansea and the football they played but this is a huge jump for him. This job is totally different. The expectations as well as the size of the job. For me Liverpool are further away from a title win as I can remember. I admit leading Swansea to the Premiership and keeping them up against the odds was a remarkable achievement. However I did feel that towards the end of last season they had been found out and would have said they will struggle this coming season.

Rogers has made some signing so far with Fabio Borini from Lazio, Joe Allan from Swansea and Oussama Assaidi from Heerenveen all joining and I expect more with Clint Dempsey being heavily linked. However I do think it will be a huge error to let Andy Carroll leave and one that could leave Rodgers with egg on his face.

I expect Liverpool to have a very tough season and that will start with a tricky trip to West Brom on saturday. For me a 6th place finish is the best they can hope for however I would predict the same as last year and 8th.

Is Rogers the right man to lead Liverpool to glory? Maybe, however it will take him 2/3 years at least to build them but will he get such time? For me he is not the right man but only time will tell.

Verdict: 5/10       Prediction for Season: 8th          


Laudrup faces tough test
Having lost Brendan Rogers many, including myself, have tipped Swansea for relegation. The loss of Gyfi Sigurdsson, Joe Allan and soon that of Scott Sinclair will affect them. Swansea finished last season poorly just as Bolton did the year before they went down. Swansea have turned to the legendary ex- Danish, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Ajax and Juventus star Michael Laudrup (left) to make sure they survive a second season in the Premier league. It is an obvious match for both man and club due to the philosophy that they both have. As a player Laudrup's talents can not be questioned however as a manger such a reputation he does not hold. He has had success at Bronby and did well with limited finances at Getafe and Real Mallorca. Although he has no experience of the Premier League and English football apart from TV. He will learn quick no doubt however for me he is up against it.

He has made signings, bringing in former players who he knows and trusts which is always a good move. Jonathan de Guzman,Chico Flores and Miguel Michu are players I have seen very little of. All three have come from Spanish or Italian football and it will be interesting to see how they adapt. They have also signed young right-back Curtis Obeng who is a great player. I saw him playing for Wrexham last year and he looked like he could play at a much higher level. Will be interesting to see how he develops. Also they have signed a striker Preston Jamie Proctor from League One Preston and Kyle Barkley from Arsenal and Itay Scechter from Kaiserslautern. I expect more signings  especially if Sinclair does leave. My concern for Swansea is goals. Is Graham going to get 10-15 goals? Sinclair and Sigurdsson scored over 20 goals between them last year and these will be hard to replace. So the pressure on the likes of Graham and the new guys such as Michu is great. Laudrup needs to unearth a gem or face relegation.

I would like to see Laudrup do well and not become another former great player to fail as a manger as Ruud Gullit and Bryan Robson have.

Verdict: 6/10        Prediction: 18th

Tottenham took the hugely unpopular yet predictable decision of replacing Harry Redknapp. Tottenham's collapse last year was a nightmare for fans as they lost third place from a position of such strength. Redknapp's course case, the England job possibility and that 'ghost' goal in the FA Cup semi-final seemed to suggests the way things were going for Spurs. Didier Drogba's penalty in Germany in the Champions League final sealed in the nightmare meaning Spurs missed out of Champions League football. Such a promising year had ended in despair.

Villas Boas needs success
Daniel Levy has opted for Andre Villas Boas as the man to lead the Tottenham charge for success and a top-four finish. Villas Boas has a nightmare at Chelsea and was removed by player power. The Chelsea players were never with him their performances clearly showed that. Due to that experience many fans may be sceptical of his appointment. For me he deserves a chance however this is it. Every manager gets sacked and offered things just do not work out however for this to happen twice in a row with two major English clubs with ambition will affect his reputation. If he fails at Spurs expect him to return to Europe and I would guess he will not be back for a long time, if ever. 

Spurs are almost certain to lose Luka Modric, which is a big blow however I expect them to re-invest the 30million+ they will receive for him. They have been linked with the likes of Moussa Dembele, Willan and Joao Moutinho. For me they are looking a little light up front and so getting Emmanuel Adebayor back seems to be an obvious move considering the success he had last year. 

The signing of Jan Vertonghon is a great signing and I expect more signing of such pedigree to follow.

Verdict: 7/10  Prediction: 6th

Clarke's first chance in the hot seat
West Brom have opted for the vastly experienced assitant-manager Steve Clarke (right). Clarke has had spells at Newcastle,Chelsea,Liverpool and West Ham while working with some top managers. People may say that this is a gamble considering he has never held a top job position. This on top of the fact that he is replacing the experienced man that is Roy Hodgson who really developed West Brom into a safe mid-table Premier League side. He is a tough man to follow no doubt. I do believe that Steve Clarke had deserved a chance and will flourish in his new position. 

West Brom have largely kept the same squad as last year which is a positive. The squad has the quality to survive another Premier League season in comfort I feel.

The signing of Romelu Lukaku is one that I am interested to see. This is a man who arrived at Chelsea with a big reputation and promise however he was never seen. For a 18 year-old he is physically huge. For me he is suited to the Premier League due to his power and pace. I think he will be a big hit this during this loan spell. West Brom will undoubted add to their squad and I think it will put them in a good position for a mid-table finish. 

Verdict: 7/10      Prediction: 11th

Not even Lambert can save Villa 
Aston Villa are a team in all sorts of trouble. It has been a decline since Martin O'Neill left the club. Alex Mcleish and Gerard Houllier  both endured poor seasons at Villa park. I heavily tipped Villa to be relegated last season and they were so lucky to survive. For only managing to win 7 games all season, they deserved to be relegated. 

Villa have opted for Paul Lambert (left). Lambert has huge success at Norwich leading them from League One to the Premier League and then survival in three years. Lambert is a good manager no doubt, however the Villa job promises something very different. the club is in decline and going down. If will take one hell of a manager to lift such a club and turn its fortunes around. A task I feel is beyond Lambert. 

I look at the squad and it is so poor. I know there is still time to buy however they need 6/7 quality players I feel. Throughout the team I would worry. Shay Given is no where near the player he was, saw that at the Euros, Richard Dunne must be 3 stone over weight. He is slow and cumbersome, as proved at the Euros. Then they have signed Vlaar, who was appalling at the Euros. If defence they have nothing and they will be shipped goals on a regular basic. In midfield, unless someone new has turned up I see nothing that would worry me. It is only Darren Bent. He is the only one to get goals and goals win games. Injury to Bent and their goals will disappear.   

They have relegation written all over them. Opening three games of the season will leave Villa bottom with 0points for sure. Home against Everton and away at newly promoted West Ham and Newcastle. Lambert is a good choice and if I were a Villa fans I would be happy with it however for me noting can save them. 

Verdict: 8/10   Prediction 19th

Hughton he right man
Norwich fans will have be saddened to lose Paul Lambert to Villa during the summer after they have endured three wonderful seasons under his tenure. They have replaced Lambert with Chris Hughton (right). This for me is a great move for the club. Chris has done terrifically well at Newcastle, where all agree he was unlucky to be sacked and at Birmingham City leading them to the play-offs despite all the off the field issues.

Norwich fans will be wary of the 'second season sydrome' however for me they will be safe. Hughton will make some new signing to improve the squad. Also I do not foresee them losing anyone. The bulk of last year's team will remain. I do think they will find it more difficult this year but will survive. They are in far better shape then Aston Villa. 

Verdict: 9/10         Prediction: 15th 

Other Predictions:
Title : Manchester United

Top Four: Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Everton

Relegation : Swansea, Reading and Aston Villa