Weekend Tips

Last week saw a return to fortunes as the bet of the day (Brighton/Middlesborough- draw) was a winner and both horses won (My Boy Bill @7/1 and Arctic cosmos @5/4). We were also unlucky with the Sunderland one. Still it was worth a punt and it was so close to coming off what would have been a great 14/1 winner. Being the Easter weekend there is a bumper list of fixtures in only a few days. There is also racing on C4 from Kempton, Musselburgh and Haydock, Masters Golf and the boat race so plenty of chances to back a winner.

Football:

O'Neill's Sunderland to go marching on

 This weekend one football fixture sticks out for me. Sunderland at home to Tottenham. As a Newcastle fan I do hate that I am constantly tipping Sunderland however under Martin O'Neill they are a real force. They have proven that with homes wins over Liverpool and Manchester City. Their performance last weekend was astonishing and were unlucky not to get the three points. Harry Redknapp's Tottenham will be in for a real battle as they travel to the North-East. The bookies know this as Sunderland price has been slowly getting lower and lower each week. This week they are 12/5 with SkyBet and still well worth that. Tottenham have stuttered as of late but last weekends win over Swansea will do the confidence good. Their run-in is very nice and would say that third place should be theirs. When you compare run-ins they have to be favourites as they face many mid-table teams with nothing really to play for unlike the other top four challengers.

Elsewhere is the Premier League I see wins for Bolton, Chelsea and Liverpool. As a treble this is 7/2 with SkyBet and looks a good one. Bolton battling for Premier League survival against Fulham safe in mid-table and very poor away from home. Chelsea should beat Wigan despite Wigan's form of late as they continue to chase top four. Liverpool have been poor however Aston Villa are looking awful and a outsider to go down, @10/1 (SkyBet) I will having a punt on that. I thought about it weeks ago however with their price still at 10/1 it is a good punt. I see nothing when I look at the team.   

In the Championship win treble for Birmingham, Nottingham Forest and Southampton @3/1. All at home and all in form against sides who are not in Crystal Palace, Bristol City and Portsmouth the latter two who are both heading into League 1. Good old boring Middlesborough have a game against fellow play-off chasing Cardiff both sides will not want to lose and as with the Brighton game last week a draw here is looking most likely and @23/10 (SkyBet) it is another nice price.

Mancini looks a worried figure

On Sunday two big Premier League games. The first, Manchester United vs QPR seems to me straightforward. Anything other then a United win will be a real surprise and they deserve their 1/6 (SkyBet) odds. The second game is the big one between Arsenal and Manchester City. Both sides really need the win. Also by the time this one is played City will know how United did and Arsenal will know how top-four challengers Chelsea and Tottenham did as well as knowing the Newcastle won and would leapfrog them with a win on monday against Bolton should Arsenal lose. This one will be tough to call however I predict an Arsenal win as believe City are struggling. Bookies are also not sure making Arsenal 7/5 City 9/5 and the draw 12/5. In truth I will leave this one alone as expect a tight, nervous match for both sets of fans.

Bet of the day : Sunderland to beat Tottenham @12/5 with SkyBet

Longshot of the day: 6 home wins: Bolton, Liverpool, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Birmingham and Southampton @18/1 with SkyBet. 

If you are really really lucky add the Middlesborough draw for odds of 60/1.  

Racing: 

Three meetings this week and a number of stand outs. Although the fields are large so picking the winners is going to be tough as well as it being the start of the season.  

At Kempton, Soraah in the 2.40  is a great horse however 9/4 is very short however do think he will win this one. Ryan Moore on board. Although the value for money bet is that of Emma's Gift at 16/1. An each-way punt here seems the way to go. Later on at Kempton, Eastern Sun in the 4.20 looks the one to beat. It will be short priced but John Gosden trained and ridden by his number one and for me future Champion Jockey William Buick. At 5/2 I would not oppose.   

At Haydock Zitenka @12/1 in the 2.25 is a good bet. Third last time out, up in class here although with Dougie Costello riding looks a good each-way bet. 

Finally at Musselburgh, Bronze Angel in the 3.50 @5/1 impressive winner last time out and expect good ride again here. In the 2.45 three punters favourites run as Captain Dunne (7/2), Borderlescott (9/2) and Hamish McGonagall (15-8) clash. Expect McGonagall to lead through out and just hold on for the win although is very tough to call. 

Best bets:

Win: 4.20 Kempton- Eastern Sun @5/2

Each-way: 2.25 Haydock - Zitenka @12/1

Golf:

Is it Mcllory's year

Rory Mcllory seems to be the one. After losing last year on that agonising final day, I think this year he will come good. 3/1 seems the bet for me however Lee Westwood does present a real challenge. I expect a late challenge from someone however who I do not know. 

Boat Race:

Oxford are the 1/3 favourites however having always supported Cambridge I will do again. Cambridge 2/1.  

Either boat to sink 33/1.

It seems a terrific few days of sport coming up. Good luck with all your bets.

Weekend Tips- FA Cup Preview

We were unlucky with a few bets last week, in particular Sunderland and the Rugby being called off. However Everton won and so did the choice of wins so a nice 15-1 win there. So still up on the day.

FA cup action this week however where will the shocks come from? With regards to Saturday I think that there are some very interesting clashes. Chelsea entertain Birmingham in the early kick off (12.30) this is a crucial game for Andre Villas Boas. He must win this one and I think he will. The best Birmingham will hope for is a draw or a 1-0 win. Despite Chelsea's poor form this is a game they should not struggle in. Birmingham have been playing very well recently and have a very strong defence however do lack goals. Birmingham hopes rest in Nathan Redmond. As a result I would predict a tight 2-1 win for Chelsea (4-1 with SkyBet). If AVB loses this one then he is in real trouble and faces the sack far sooner then in the summer.

Elsewhere Blackpool have the potential to surprise Everton. Blackpool similar to Birmingham with regards to good form and this one is very difficult to call. I would predict Everton to just edge it 2-1 (7-1 with SkyBet). But with Kevin Phillips around and Ian Holloway as manager who knows. Also Millwall entertain Bolton, with both teams near the bottom of their respective divisions. Due to Bolton form and The New Den not being an easy place to go I would predict a draw (12-5 SkyBet). I also expect Norwich to beat Leicester.

Evans out to shock again with Crawley

The interesting clash and the best chance for  a shock is at the Stadium of Light.  Last week I tipped Sunderland to beat Arsenal and they were unlucky not to. I can not believe Arsenal will get that lucky again. Also no Henry and the thumping that they received in mid-week will play on their minds and I think that they will lose. Sunderland will also have learnt from last week and will be out for revenge. So I predict a win for Sunderland. (9-5 Skybet)

The second major shock will be on Sunday where League 2 Crawley Town take on Premier League Stoke City.  Stoke struggle away from home and Crawley will be buzzing for the contest. Steve Evans (right) will have his team organised and disciplined. Their win over Hull in the last round was very impressive and I think that this is the best chance of a shock. 11-4 odds from SkyBet are very appealing and I will be having a punt on that.

The romantics of the cup with hope that Stevenage can beat Tottenham and in the FA cup you never know however for me I do not expect them to have any trouble here. Then at Anfield where Brighton take on Liverpool again I expect Liverpool to have to much. Brighton are on good form however the likes of Bellamy will really trouble them and if I was Dalglish I would play Carroll as Brighton are not good with dealing with big powerful centre forward. He would have joy all day and probably score, as long as Liverpool put decent crosses in.

Bet of the Day: Sunderland to beat Arsenal (9-5 Skybet)

                         Tomorrow- Crawley to beat Stoke (11-4 SkyBet)

Longshot of the day: Despite me predicting an Everton win Blackpool odds of 6-1 are very appealing. This is a huge price when you consider there are only 3 possible results and the form of Blackpool. There are only one division below.

Win multiple: MK Dons, Sheffield United, Cheltenham, Barnsley (7-1 SkyBet)

Both to score: Southend/Crewe, Port Vale/Gillingham, Hartlepool/Notts County and Bristol Rovers/Oxford  (7-1 SkyBet)

Horse Racing:

Each Way- 2.25 at Haydock- Reindeer Dippin at 13-2

Win - 4.30 at Haydock- Upthemsteps at 7-2

Good luck with any bets you have this week.

Madrid draw Barcelona in Champions League Semi-Final

Real Madrid have drawn Barcelona to set up a blockbuster Champions League Semi-final clash. 

Jose Mourinho (right) has taken a lot of stick from the fans, the press and many Real Madrid legends over the style in which his Madrid side plays.

The 'special one'

However I do believe that they are being very harsh. Earlier in the season he watched as his Madrid side were dismantled 5-0 by Barcelona, so to me it is fairly obvious that he is not going to play the same way or even attempt to take them on that their own game. Barcelona are without doubt man for man the best team in the world. However as Mourinho has shown in the last two encounters he is capable of tactically beating them. It isn't pretty but it is attritional. The closing down and breaking up of attacks stops Barcelona playing. This tactic takes an enormous amount of concentration of which he instils into his sides. People say it is boring however it is actually a wonderful watch to see the two styles collide. He knows that Barcelona are the better team however his ability to frustrate them is second to none. He did it with Inter Milan last year and I can see him doing it again this year. It will be a thrilling two legs. Having already played them twice it will be interesting to see if he persists with similar tactics.

Mourinho is known for surprises. The first game showed that. Playing Pepe in front of the back four in which he would break up attacks and then drive forward caught Barcelona by surprise. He, Pepe, was outstanding in the league game. A game in which Madrid had the chances to win. He wasn't so influential in the Copa Del Rey Final however the counter-attacking style did prevail.

The Champions League promises to be fascinating and I do think the winner of that tie will win the tournament at Wembley. You may not like it but you have to appreciate it. It gets results. Would Arsenal fans swap the pretty football for trophies? He is without doubt the best manager in the world at this moment in time.

There is no other manager in the world I would want if my team had to win a one off match.

Arsenal's Woes Continue

Another trophyless season has now been confirmed for Arsenal. Sundays defeat to Bolton was the was final nail in the coffin. The slim hope that Arsenal had of challenging Manchester United for the title is gone. This is now the sixth season without a trophy and the Aresnal fans are more restless then ever. Arsene Wenger's (below right) stubbornness over his policy of not spending money is again damaging the team. 

For years now Arsenal have been lacking a title-winning spine to the team. A world class goalkeeper has been needed, why he did not sign Shay Given years ago no one will ever know. He has persisted with the likes of Almunia and Fabianski who will not win you leagues or cups. They are liabilities. This year Schenzy has had some very impressive performances and is me for is the best goalkeeper at the club but he is still error-prone.

Time for Wenger to spend

The centre of defence has been weak since the likes of Tony Adams retired. Thomas Vermaelen has been impressive however his injuries have affected Arsenal. Without him the defence is weak. Lorient Koscielny and Sebastian Squillaci are in their first seasons but have not impressed. Arsenal are noted as weak from set pieces. Teams such as Bolton and Stoke have always troubled Arsenal in recent years due to their physicality. Wenger always complains however his successful sides would not have had a problem. At the back he had Sol Campbell, Martin Keown and Adams. They were always very strong and gave the team real backbone. 

They also had the likes of Patrick Vieira and Ray Parlour to boss the midfield. These were hard players who could easily hold their own. Vieira is the one who they have missed very much. They have never replaced him. Diaby and Song are just not in the same league.

Players such as Ljungberg and Pires have not been replaced. These were great players at the height of their careers. Both were skilful players who the likes of Tomas Rosicky are no where near up to their standard. Andrey Arshavin and Samir Nasri have their moments and Theo Walcott is a shadow of the player he should be.

Another area where Aresne has seems to have changed tactic in up front. In the beginning he had Nicolas Anelka an unknown at the time that took the league by storm. When he was sold to Real Madrid he was deemed an almost impossible player to replace. The pace, power and clinical finish. However suddenly in comes another reasonably unknown called Thierry Henry. He proved better then Anelka and is one of the greatest Premier League forwards of all time. Another element to the success was that of the masterful Dennis Bergkamp. Now neither have been properly replaced. Robin Van Persie is a great player however his injuries have prevented him from maintaining his form for an entire season. Wenger seems to have gone against his electric frontman tactic which for me is an error. Nicklas Bendtner should not be at the club, the Barcelona game proved that. For me he has the player to fulfill the void and that is Walcott. Why has he never put Walcottt up the middle? He is wasted out wide. When I first saw Walcott, I saw him as a potential Henry for England. His performances for the U21, especially his two goals against Germany were world class. He only came on in the 77th minute. Where has this player gone?

His potential is not being fulfilled and he is rotting on the wing and at Arsenal. Walcott needs to leave Arsenal to both play every week and be put through the middle. He is now a shadow of that player he was and now seems is scared to shoot.

Arsenal have good players but not great. They lack leaders throughout the team. Until this is rectified no trophy will be coming Arsenal's way. The Carling Cup was a prime example of this. This was a defining moment in the season. Too many weak links and no winning mentality has cost them. Arsenal never grind out results like Chelsea or United do. Arsenal's football is fantastic but has no cutting edge. They try to play Barcelona style however don't have the Lionel Messi and David Villa at the end of it. I honestly believe Wenger's time is coming to an end. In the last few weeks he is losing the plot, the comments to Kenny Daglish after the Liverpool game proved that. Arsenal need a new approach; either a new man like Jose Mourinho who will maybe not give the style but will provide trophies or a Pep Guardiola to continue the style but add the end product. Alternatively Wenger needs to cull the weak links and failures and spend, which I cant see happening.

Ins-Golakeeper, centre half, dominating centre midfield like Yaya Toure and clinical forward.

Outs- Bendtner, Rosicky, Denilson, Almunia, and thats just for starts.

Arsenal Tough Task

Tonight Arsenal without Theo Walcott and huge doubts over both Robin Van Persie and Cesc Fabregas, who even if play will not be fit, face the might of Barcelona at the Nou Camp. Barcelona are one of if not the best team in the world at the moment. Despite Arsenals stunning comeback at the Emirates they have to expect an all out assault tonight from Barcelona. Scoring goals is never a problem for Barcelona and at the Nou Camp they are almost a cert to score. Arsenal will not hold out. 

Last season Mourinho's boring yet masterful game plan of defending and shutting the game out worked. However they did concede and that was with the incredibly rigid and tight organisational unit that was Inter Milan. 

Wenger must be fearful of what could happen

Arsenal are not the same, they do not have the players to do it. They are not strong enough. As a result Arsenal must score goals and with Barcelona missing Gerard Pique and Carlos Puyol they must fancy scoring. However I don't think they will as they lack the fire power. A not fully fit RVP and no Walcott means that a real genuine threat seem to be lacking. Having said that players such as Samir Nasri and Andrey Arshavin have the ability and will have to step up to the plate.

I just see Barcelona's midfield as too strong and can see Arsenal chasing shadows for much of the night. The forward line is also frighting and with the Arsenal defence not being dependable I can see many Barcelona chances. If Arsenal don't get going early they could easily find themselves 3/4 down by half time.

This will be a real mental and physical test for Arsenal. They will have to do more work off the ball then usual and shut men down early. If Arsenal go all out attack I do fear for them as that is clearly not the way to play. They don't have the players. To win this one Arsene Wenger (left) will have to go away from his perfect football idea and be prepared to win ugly. Although I have no faith that he will. He needs to forget those principals tonight as it is all about, as Charlie Sheen says, "Winning" the aggregate tie to progress. It is this mindset that separates Jose Mourinho from Wenger. Arsene ideas have won him nothing in recent years whereas Mourinho's cabinet is bursting.

 I am looking for a stirring performance from Arsenal and hope they go through, although my head tells me it is going to be a depressing night for Arsenal fans.